Research on Hybrid Wind Power Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition
(1.School of Intelligent Manufacturing and Control Engineering, Qilu Institute of Technology, Ji'nan 250200, China; 2.Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Industrial Big Data and Intelligent Manufacturing, Qilu Institute of Technology, Ji'nan 250200, China)
Abstract
High-precision prediction of wind power generation is of great significance for the optimal scheduling and stable operation of smart grids. However, wind power time-series data exhibit characteristics of nonlinearity, non-stationarity and long-term dependence, making it difficult for traditional methods to establish effective models. For this reason, a hybrid prediction model named VMD-BiLSTM is proposed based on Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network. The model uses VMD to decompose the original wind power data into multiple stable modal components to alleviate the complex characteristics of the data, and adopts BiLSTM to extract the temporal dependency information in each component to achieve accurate prediction of wind power trends. Experimental results on two public wind power datasets show that VMD-BiLSTM outperforms many other advanced models in terms of data fitting and prediction accuracy, and effectively reduces the impact of intermittent instability in wind power generation on prediction results. This research provides new ideas for the modeling and prediction of complex wind power data and offers strong data support for decision-making in smart grids.
Keywords
time series prediction; wind power; Big Data; Deep Learning; mode decomposition
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About the authors
Dai Xianyong (2004-), male, Han ethnicity, from Jinan, Shandong Province, undergraduate studies, research direction: pattern recognition and control systems; Correspondence author: Liu Wenqi (1997-), female, Han nationality, from Jinan, Shandong Province, associate professor, master's candidate, research direction: intelligent computing and edge computing.