Article Details

Abstract

Facing the complex and ever-changing international situation, the stable operation and secure supply of the China's energy market are confronted with challenges. Driven by the low-carbon energy transition strategy and policies for increasing reserves and production, China has great potential to enhance the proven reserves and utilization level of natural gas resources. Thus the supply situation of natural gas production and industrial development deserve in-depth discussion. Based on the SARIMA time series method, this study takes the interference factor of the COVID-19 pandemic situation into account, uses the natural gas production data from the National Bureau of Statistics, and constructs a short-term forecasting model for China's natural gas production. The R2 and MAPE of the model are 0.989 and 2.528 respectively, which indicates that the model has good fitting quality and error control. Multiple evaluation indicators are superior to traditional time series models. The natural gas production in 2025 is estimated to be 255～265 billion cubic meters. Based on the forecast results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the stable supply of natural gas resources and the industrial development planning in China.

Keywords

SARIMA; time series; natural gas production; short-term forecasting; increasing reserves and production

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About the authors

Zhao Huiying (1999-), female, Han ethnicity, from Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China, intermediate economist, master's degree, research direction: macroeconomics and oil and gas markets.